It has been shown that we as humans aren't very good at predicting how intense or how long a future feeling will last. Specifically, we overestimate; we tend to think we will be happier for a longer time due to good events, and sadder for a longer time due to depressing events. In reality we bounce back from both positive and negative emotions more quickly than we imagine. This is what we call a failure in affective forecasting, the ability to predict how we will react or feel in future emotional events (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003).
When I drove by myself to New Hampshire over this past winter break to campaign for Obama, I was very emotionally invested in the campaign. When we lost New Hampshire, and in particular the town I had been working in, I wasn't so much depressed and in despair that all my work was for nothing as I was angry. This was unexpected, and probably due to some kind of defense mechanism where I would rather be angry than sad. And by the time I got back to my home in Texas, I was so happy to be home that all distress due to losing New Hampshire was nearly gone.
I kept up with the campaign and obsessively read news articles online to see how the primaries were going. I soon saw, however, that the campaign was beginning to change in response to attacks from Hilary, and I didn't like where it was going.
So when Hilary dropped out I was surprised to find myself relieved more than anything. I didn't feel elated or justified or celebratory at all. I just felt that we had dodged one more bullet. I never would have guessed I would lack enthusiasm for that victory.
So in conclusion, back at New Hampshire I thought I would be off the walls if Obama won the primary- and all I could say about that now is I'm glad I didn't bet on it.
Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). Affective forecasting. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 35, 345-411.
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It's encouraging that when we experience sad events that we often over exaggerate the intensity or the duration of the emotion. In an instance of affective forecasting in my life, I had planned for years to attend Rice University as an undergraduate and couldn't imagine how sad I would feel if I wasn't accepted there. Yet, when my early application was deferred and I was later rejected, I was a bit disappointed at first but it wasn't long before I was indifferent and almost happy I hadn't been accepted. What I thought would be the end of the world didn't cause a single tear. I, like you with Obama's defeat, had quite misinterpreted how I would emotionally react to a loss or in my case, rejection.
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